Agricultural Policy: Opportunities and Challenges for the New Administration
Michael Adjemian, C-FARE Board Member and Professor at the University of Georgia & Lauren Chenarides, C-FARE Board Member and Professor at Colorado State University
The new administration will arrive in Washington, D.C., on January 20th. Through policy choices, it will shape American agriculture and food systems—which face significant opportunities in a world with a population growing in both number and prosperity [1, 2]. This article describes some of the likely areas that policymakers will consider.
Immigration and Farm Labor. According to the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), about 70% of hired crop farmworkers in the United States are immigrants, and over 40% are in the country illegally [3]. New immigration policies that reduce the availability of migrant farm laborers could increase domestic crop production costs, placing strain on smaller farms if they are unable to replace them with domestic laborers at the same wage.* Existing law permits U.S. producers to hire seasonal migrant laborers through the H-2A visa program. However, producers routinely express concerns about complications and costs of using the program [4, 5]. Streamlining the matching process and keeping program costs down for U.S. farms are potential areas of opportunity.
Trade Policies. The President has broad authority under several Acts of Congress to implement tariffs. During the first Trump administration China retaliated to new U.S. trade restrictions by targeting American exports of agricultural products like soybeans, temporarily lowering the price of U.S. soybeans and shifting their global trade pattern [6]. It may be that going forward, credible tariff threats open new markets for agricultural exports; alternatively, tariff retaliation might affect costs and returns to domestic producers.
Regulatory Reform. Compliance costs burden participants in the food supply chain [7]; for example, the number regulations affecting a single ounce of beef produced in the United States have increase five-fold in fifty years [8]. The incoming administration has announced plans to substantially reform regulations through its Department of Government Efficiency. If it can be accomplished while preserving food safety and environmental conditions, rescinding unnecessary or wasteful regulations could lower domestic producer costs and foster innovation and productivity growth in food production and distribution.
The Farm Bill. Most federal expenditures directed towards agriculture and food in the United States, including those for crop and livestock insurance, crop subsidies, and nutrition assistance, are made under the Farm Bill. While the current Congress extended its authorization through September 2025 [9], revising the Farm Bill will offer the opportunity to not only improve the efficiency and delivery of support for producers and households, but also promote agricultural research and education through the land grant system, a key contributor to the historic and future dynamism of the American farm and, through it, the domestic economy [10, 11]. The most significant anticipated revisions are likely to focus on Title 1 (Commodities), Title II
(Conservation), and Title IV (Nutrition), which together account for over 90% of Farm Bill spending [12, 13].
Nutrition and Food Assistance. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the largest title of the Farm Bill and serves as a cornerstone of federal nutrition support, providing benefits to 42 million Americans while generating $1.50 in economic activity for every dollar spent [14, 15]. Although overall food inflation has slowed, sustained high price levels continue to strain household budgets, with 13.5% of US households experiencing food insecurity [16]. Research indicates that well-designed nutrition assistance not only improves food security but also reduces healthcare costs through better nutrition outcomes [17]. To that end, recent policy discussions are revisiting proposals to restrict SNAP purchases to a predetermined list of nutritious foods, which some believe may induce participants to make healthier food purchase choices. On the other hand, research findings indicate that such restrictions could increase administrative costs while offering limited effectiveness in improving nutritional outcomes [18, 19]. Other options to improve SNAP and reduce its administrative costs include modernizing benefit delivery systems, addressing benefit cliffs, and expanding programs that connect SNAP recipients with local agricultural producers; empirical research offers encouraging signs regarding each [17, 20].
Looking Ahead
The new administration faces important policy decisions in immigration, trade, regulation, Farm Bill revision and implementation, and nutritional security. Reforms in these areas will affect the efficiency, stability, and productive capacity of our agricultural and food systems, as well as consumer access to food. The research base outlined in this article highlights a small portion of the available evidence-base for evaluating the likely effects of new policies on our agricultural markets and food security over the next few years.
* Some of those farm workers who return to their country of origin might produce the same crops for export to the United States, compounding the challenge facing U.S. producers.
References
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USDA Economic Research Service. Farm Labor. Farm Economy 2025 [cited 2025 January 3rd]; Available from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor/.
Wilson, M., Pros and cons of H-2A guest farmworkers, in Farm Progress. 2023: St. Charles, IL.
Williams, R., Georgia AG wants Trump administration to restrain rising migrant farm worker pay, in Georgia Recorder. 2024: Atlanta, GA.
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Malone, T. and A. Staples, Regulatory restrictions are making food supply chain disruptions worse, in The Hill. 2021, Nexstar Media Group: Washington, D.C.
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Adjemian, M.K., et al., Measuring the economic contribution of Agricultural and Applied Economics departments in the United States. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2024. 46(3): p. 921-933.
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Harnack, L.J., et al., Effects of Inclusion of Food Purchase Restrictions and Incentives in a Food Benefit Program on Diet Quality and Food Purchasing: Results From a Randomized Trial. J Acad Nutr Diet, 2024. 124(5): p. 569-582 e3.
Committee on Examination of the Adequacy of Food, R., et al., Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Examining the Evidence to Define Benefit Adequacy, ed. J.A. Caswell and A.L. Yaktine. 2013, Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US).
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