U.S.-China Relations: Challenges and Opportunities for American Agriculture
The evolving dynamics between the United States and China are profoundly shaping the global landscape. This webinar will explore the implications of US-China relations for the agricultural sector, focusing on key issues such as the significance of these bilateral ties for American agriculture, the lasting effects of the US-China trade war, and the future outlook for trade relations. The discussion also addresses the growing concerns surrounding Chinese ownership of US farmland, while exploring potential areas for future cooperation that could benefit both nations and the broader agricultural community. This timely conversation provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in this pivotal relationship.
Holly Wang – Importance of US-China Relations to U.S. Agriculture
Holly Wang’s presentation explored the significant impact of these relations on the U.S. agricultural sector and economy as a whole. The U.S. is the largest agricultural exporter globally, with exports reaching nearly $200 billion in 2023. Approximately 1.25 million jobs in the U.S. are tied to agricultural exports, half a million of which are farm-based. China has consistently served as the largest importer of U.S. agricultural products, especially in high-demand commodities like soybeans, corn, and meat. However, disruptions such as the U.S.-China trade war temporarily shifted China’s sourcing to other countries, costing the U.S. an estimated $30 billion in lost exports and over 34,000 farm jobs.
Forecasts for 2024 suggest continued challenges in U.S.-China agricultural trade. Factors include fierce competition from Brazil, a strong U.S. dollar, and economic fluctuations in China, coupled with ongoing political tensions. China’s focus on self-sufficiency in essential food grains and strategic imports of feed grains and oilseeds reflect its food security policies. Furthermore, Chinese state-owned enterprises dominate the agricultural import market, allowing the Chinese government to control import sources through tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This government influence, combined with a shift in consumer sentiment, signals an increasingly complex relationship that has tangible effects on the U.S. agricultural economy.
Shawn Arita – Impact of U.S.-China Trade War on Agriculture
Shawn Arita's presentation provided a detailed analysis of the 2018-19 U.S.-China trade war and its significant impact on U.S. agriculture. Initially, China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 fueled rapid growth in U.S. agricultural exports, reaching $26 billion by 2012. However, the trade war triggered by Section 232 and 301 tariffs disrupted this momentum, with China imposing retaliatory tariffs that most severely impacted soybeans—a key export commodity. Studies show that the trade war led to a cumulative trade loss of approximately $27 billion for U.S. agriculture, with Midwestern states particularly affected due to their dependence on soybeans, sorghum, and pork exports to China. While U.S. soybeans faced declining prices, Brazilian soybeans saw a price premium, reflecting China’s strategic shift toward Brazilian suppliers and a weakening of U.S. logistical channels for soybean exports.
Long-term repercussions from the trade war continue to shape U.S.-China agricultural relations. While the 2020 Phase One Agreement and post-pandemic market demands briefly revived U.S. exports to China, the U.S. has ceded substantial ground to Brazil, now the primary soybean supplier to China. The tariffs also incentivized Brazil’s agricultural expansion, strengthening its position in the global market. Though China has granted tariff waivers, the retaliatory tariffs technically remain in place, posing an ongoing risk to U.S. export stability. China’s diversification to other suppliers reflects a partial decoupling, while the U.S. remains heavily reliant on the Chinese market for its agricultural exports, underscoring the sustained economic interdependence despite rising geopolitical tensions.
Wendong Zhang – Chinese Ownership of U.S. Agricultural Land
Wendong Zhang’s presentation addressed the growing concerns around Chinese ownership of U.S. agricultural land, an issue gaining media and political attention due to its potential security implications. Although foreign ownership of U.S. farmland is relatively small—approximately 3.4% of total U.S. farmland, or 43 million acres—public concern has increased due to specific instances like land purchases near sensitive sites and notable acquisitions like Smithfield Foods in 2013. Federal regulations such as the American Foreign Land Investment Disclosure Act require foreign entities to voluntarily report farmland ownership, including leases over 10 years, but provide limited geographic details. As foreign interest grows, some states and federal legislators have begun proposing tighter restrictions and more robust reporting requirements.
Despite the focus on Chinese ownership, Zhang highlighted that the majority of foreign-held U.S. farmland is owned by U.S. allies, with Canada as the largest holder, while China ranks 18th. Chinese investments are concentrated in specific counties and are largely tied to high-profile acquisitions like Smithfield Foods. Zhang also emphasized that Chinese overseas investments are increasingly focused on Belt and Road countries rather than the U.S., reflecting China’s strategic global priorities. The USDA is actively working to improve the accuracy and transparency of foreign farmland ownership data in response to rising public interest and legislative scrutiny.
Bryan Lohmar – U.S.-China Agricultural Cooperation: Whether, Whither, and How?
Bryan Lohmar’s presentation explored the history and future of U.S.-China agricultural cooperation, emphasizing both the benefits and challenges of collaboration. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations, agricultural exchange programs have played a pivotal role in building the U.S.-China relationship. Initiatives like the Scientific Cooperation Exchange Program (SCEP) and the Emerging Markets Program have facilitated knowledge-sharing on issues like livestock management, soil conservation, and nutrition. These programs have also supported U.S. agricultural exports, helping China meet its demand for bulk commodities, while advancing shared goals in food security and agricultural development. Lohmar noted that cooperation has often been pragmatic—supporting market development, gathering data, and improving mutual understanding.
However, the evolving political landscape has made U.S.-China agricultural collaboration more complex. China’s strict NGO laws and sensitivity around market information have hindered information-sharing and practical cooperation. Lohmar highlighted that motivations for U.S. involvement are frequently questioned within China, despite the benefits to Chinese agriculture and trade. Even as China remains a significant market for U.S. agricultural exports, the diplomatic relationship requires careful navigation, as each side balances mutual interest with domestic priorities and skepticism. Despite these hurdles, Lohmar emphasized that staying engaged with China in agriculture is crucial, as it remains a vital component of U.S. trade and diplomatic relations.
This program is supported in part by the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association and the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, and the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Those who register but cannot attend our webinar can always view a recording of it later at the council’s YouTube channel.